Q4 2025 Market Update

Entering 2026, investors are navigating a market defined by contradiction. Consumer sentiment is near historic lows, equity markets continue to hit record highs, and economic growth remains modest. Add distorted or missing data from last year’s government shutdown, and forecasting can feel more uncertain than usual.

In this market recap,  Justin Kittle CFA®, CAIA®, CFP® Portfolio Manager and Advisor, examines why today’s environment feels so disorienting and why investing based on sentiment alone has historically been a mistake. He explores the growing disconnect between the economy and the market, the role AI is playing in earnings and growth, and whether today’s AI-driven rally resembles past investment bubbles. Most importantly, he puts current conditions into historical context, reminding investors why long-term discipline matters most during periods of doubt.

Periods of transition reinforce the importance of disciplined investment strategies and thoughtfully constructed portfolios. With mixed signals across economic data and market sentiment, maintaining perspective is essential. If you would like to discuss how these developments may relate to your financial objectives or portfolio positioning, please reach out to us.